Pair #4608

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11185

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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