Pair #4603

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-SSTR

Will Sepp Straka win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1311532

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major, so winning a major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open. Winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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