Pair #4596

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 224449

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 258939

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:23Z

Reasoning: Top 5 is a subset of top 10 — finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold: finishing 6th-10th satisfies top 10 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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