Pair #4593

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 224449

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:23Z

Reasoning: DeChambeau could win a major other than the Masters, so no implication toward top 5 at Masters. And top 5 at Masters doesn't mean he wins any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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