Pair #4592

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29118

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 258939

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:23Z

Reasoning: DeChambeau could win a different major (not the Masters), so winning a major doesn't necessitate a top 10 at the Masters. And a top 10 at the Masters doesn't mean he wins any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -19.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -24.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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