Pair #4590

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 224449

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:23Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors doesn't require a top 5 at the Masters (could finish 6th-10th). And finishing top 5 at the Masters doesn't mean he finished top 10 at the other three majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -44.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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