Pair #4589

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 258939

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:23Z

Reasoning: If DeChambeau finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, then he necessarily finished top 10 at the Masters (one of the 4). The reverse does not hold — top 10 at Masters alone doesn't guarantee top 10 at the other three.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -62.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -66.86% BELOW HURDLE

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