Pair #4588

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 261755

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:04Z

Reasoning: If DeChambeau finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which means he also finishes top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 20 at the Masters alone does not imply top 10 at all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -82.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -87.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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