Pair #4583

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27229

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12277

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:04Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue