Pair #4579

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12277

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15576

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:08:04Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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