Pair #4573

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8760

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 95015

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and leading after Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are completely independent outcomes across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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