Pair #4571

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8760

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15576

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open are completely independent outcomes across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -75.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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