Pair #4569

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27229

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3338259

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1710
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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