Pair #4564

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30685

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:29Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments — Valero Texas Open vs. Masters Tournament. A top 5 finish in one has no logical bearing on the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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