Pair #4563

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8278

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:29Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments — Valero Texas Open vs. Masters Tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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