Pair #4556

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26932

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8278

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:29Z

Reasoning: If Fleetwood finishes top 10, he must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue