Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFLE
Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58557
YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE
Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:29Z
Reasoning: These are different tournaments — Valero Texas Open vs. Masters Tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.4800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A