Pair #4554

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58557

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:29Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments — Valero Texas Open vs. Masters Tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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