Pair #455

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17BERBRO-BER

Will Zizou Bergs win the Bergs vs Brooksby : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Zizou Bergs
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 20314

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zizou Bergs wins the Bergs vs Brooksby professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR17BERBRO-1-BER

Will Zizou Bergs win set 1 in the Zizou Bergs vs Jenson Brooksby match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Zizou Bergs
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 280

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zizou Bergs wins set 1 in the Zizou Bergs vs Jenson Brooksby professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not require winning set 1 (Bergs could lose set 1 and win the match). Winning set 1 does not require winning the match (he could win set 1 but lose the match). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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