Pair #4545

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2262189

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26932

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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