Pair #4543

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 could be any of the four majors — not necessarily the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not mean winning a major (could finish 2nd–5th). No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -8.02% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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