Pair #4542

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30685

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open, and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open does not require winning a major. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -25.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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