Pair #4541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8278

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:07:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 does not require making the cut at the Valero Texas Open (a non-major), and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open has no bearing on winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.82% BELOW HURDLE

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