Pair #4540

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 240569

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:46Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 at the Valero Texas Open. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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