Pair #454

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 76346

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alexander Bublik wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 6179

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alexander Bublik wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:58Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open and French Open are separate tournaments. Winning one does not necessitate winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -37.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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