Pair #4539

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17455

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26932

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:46Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open. These are independent events on different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -41.23% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -45.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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