Pair #453

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-ABUB

Will Alexander Bublik win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 6179

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:58Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam, so winning it does not imply winning a Grand Slam. Winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the Miami Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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