Pair #4524

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58557

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9028598

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters is a separate event from finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4020
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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