Pair #4522

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17606

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5747

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:25Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means making the cut — you cannot finish in the top 5 without having made the cut. The reverse is not true: making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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