Pair #4513

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32750

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 57514

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 could be 11th through 20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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