Pair #451

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8348

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 2500

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:58Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam, so winning it does not imply winning a Grand Slam. Winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the Miami Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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