Pair #4507

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17606

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:06:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major is entirely independent of finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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