Pair #4500

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5747

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:05:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to making the cut at the Valero Texas Open. These are fully independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -103.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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