Pair #449

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV

Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 41460

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:49Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam tournament, so winning it does not imply winning a Grand Slam. And winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the Miami Open. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 132.35% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.6100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +128.07% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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