Pair #4489

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1465

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-JNIE

Joaquin Niemann to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15493

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:05:30Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessarily mean Niemann competed in the Masters (he could win a different major). Competing in the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue