Pair #4471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9463

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 425

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:05:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major has no logical connection to finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, which is a separate tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -75.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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