Pair #4470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 79207

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:05:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, which is a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.51% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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