Pair #4469

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11879

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:05:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 is a completely separate tournament from the Valero Texas Open. Neither result necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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