Pair #4466

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RHEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:04:50Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical dependency on finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open, a separate non-major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -10.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue