Pair #445

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMARMAD-26-MICH

Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXMARMAD
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-07T14:00:00Z
Volume: 20619743

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMARMADROUND-26E8-MICH

Will Michigan qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?

Series: KXMARMADROUND
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z
Volume: 48569

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan qualifies for the 2026 Men's March Madness Elite Eight, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the national championship requires passing through the Elite Eight. Championship implies Elite Eight, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:38:20Z

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