Pair #4446

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 230620

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12240

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:04:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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