Pair #4433

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 113663

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:04:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 does not necessitate a top-10 at the Masters (Rahm could win a different major). A top-10 at the Masters does not necessitate winning a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.93% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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