Pair #4429

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-STHE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5015

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them. Winning a major means top 10 in that major but not necessarily all 4. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -22.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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