Pair #4427

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-STHE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5015

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-STHE

Will Sahith Theegala win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2231588

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means top 10 at the Masters, but does not guarantee top 10 at the other 3 majors. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -0.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: 39
Hurdle yield: 4.18%
Excess yield: -5.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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