Pair #4426

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR

Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the 4 majors — he could win the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open without competing in the Masters. No necessary implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -62.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -67.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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