Pair #4425

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR

Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have competed in the Masters. The reverse does not hold — competing in the Masters doesn't mean he finished top 10 in all 4.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -97.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue