Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR
Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z
Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have competed in the Masters. The reverse does not hold — competing in the Masters doesn't mean he finished top 10 in all 4.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-97.91%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.8100
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-102.12%
BELOW HURDLE