Pair #4423

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BKOE

Masters Tournament: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 104313

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the 4 majors, not necessarily the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters does not mean he won a major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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