Pair #4422

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BKOE

Masters Tournament: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 104313

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require a top 5 at the Masters specifically (top 6-10 would suffice). And finishing top 5 at the Masters alone does not mean he finished top 10 in all 4 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -27.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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