Pair #4419

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MWLE

Will Min Woo Lee win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3343364

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top 10 at the Masters but not top 10 in all 4 majors. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -0.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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