Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MWLE
Will Min Woo Lee win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3343364
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters guarantees a top 10 at the Masters but not top 10 in all 4 majors. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-0.65%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0010
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-4.86%
BELOW HURDLE