Pair #4418

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3008

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them. Winning a major implies a top 10 in that major but does not guarantee top 10 in all 4 majors. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -28.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -32.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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