Pair #4417

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6938197

YES ask: 0.0640
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0640

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means a top 10 at the Masters, but the other market requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in the other three majors. Conversely, finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -30.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0440
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -34.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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